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Using Predictive Modeling To Identify Lead Service Lines
When it comes to the Lead and Copper Rule Revisions (LCRR), the number one thing causing uncertainty for most utilities is creating a service line inventory. Water systems are searching for creative solutions and efficiencies when it comes to their inventory in order to meet compliance requirements.
Posted on March 9, 2022
LCRR’s inventory requirement
LCRR requires all water systems to develop an initial service line inventory by October 2024 or demonstrate the absence of Lead Service Lines. Lead Service Line Replacement Plans must then be created as a result of your inventory.
Inventories must also be made publicly available and must identify service line material for both private-owned and utility-owned portions as:
- Lead
- Galvanized requiring replacement
- Not lead
- “Unknown”
Historically, most utilities have only been responsible for the public or utility-owned portion of the service line, but LCRR is adding private site verification to utilities’ plates as well.
Under LCRR, utilities may use predictive models to identify service line materials more systematically: “Such predictive models could also inform water systems in how they can approach LSLR in a more efficient manner. The EPA encourages but does not require this practice as it allows consumers with lead status unknown service lines to be informed sooner about their service line material.“
What is Predictive Modeling
Predictive Modeling technology works by analyzing historical and current data to generate a model that helps predict certain information, like the material type of unknown service lines.
With Predictive Modeling from 120Water, agencies and water systems employ existing records to inform our advanced data science. We use machine learning to identify the most probable locations of lead service lines, allowing you to generate your inventory more cost-effectively and plan for LSL replacements without arbitrarily potholing and excavating.
How 120Water Applies Predictive Modeling with the Lead Service Line Probability Finder
The 120Water Predictive Modeling process helps customers develop service line inventories through an integrated approach of full-service management, easy-to-use software, and advanced machine learning. The entire process is handled by the 120Water team, and all the results and data are available in accessible dashboards throughout the process.
1. Develop Preliminary Inventory
The 120Water team will identify all sources of potential records including:
- GIS records
- Billing system records
- Work Order System records
- Paper reports, Tap cards, etc.
- Recent capital projects
- Tax parcel information
- Other relevant sources
All the data will be assessed through a QA/QC process and all relevant data is loaded into the 120Water software.
2. Run the Model
If there is no known lead (but the customer knows they have lead somewhere in their system), the Model provides an initial inspection list of most likely spots to have lead.
If there is confirmed lead, the Model is run to provide an initial predictive set.
3. Deliver Results of Initial Model Run
Results are broken into neighborhood clusters with different degrees of confidence by neighborhood inclusive of overall hit rate expectation as well as overall coverage.
120Water delivers a verification list for neighborhoods with a higher hit rate as well as a list of sites for inspection that will be used to further enhance the model’s accuracy.
4. Recommend Verification Approach
120Water assists customers in developing the best approach for verifying predicted lead service lines, including the possibility of Hydrovacing/potholing in some locations and using Lead Check Swabs/customer surveys in others.
5. Manage the Verifications
The verification process is automated with triggered workflows and managed entirely within 120Water and all the data is fed back into the Predictive Model algorithm.
6. Continuously Re-Run the Model
With the new information, the model is re-run and repeated until the program’s goals are accomplished.
Why Use Predictive Modeling with 120Water?
The 120Water Lead Service Line Probability Finder helps you map and manage your inventory project from start to finish.
- Avoid unnecessary excavations and house all predictive, verification, and material data in one easy-to-use system.
- More than just a technical model: 120Water pairs the most advanced predictive technology with years of LCR expertise to strategically apply the findings in the most utility-friendly way, allowing time and resource efficiency.
- Inventory and beyond: 120Water not only provides the data to enable customer outreach, but also facilitates, manages, and handles customer support on behalf of their clients.
- The 120Water Lead Service Line Probability Finder delivers an iterative model that continues to improve. The model is flexible depending on what each client needs.
By utilizing 120Water’s Predictive Modeling solution, our customers are using a data-driven approach and planning verification digs more efficiently, budgeting more accurately, and communicating more clearly with their customers. If you’d like to learn more about predictive modeling and how we can support you in building your inventory, schedule time with our team at 120water.com/lcrr-assistance.
